Coronavirus

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Fri May 15, 2020 11:15 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernot ... tResp.html
Counterfeit Respirators / Misrepresentation of NIOSH-Approval

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Sun May 17, 2020 3:17 am

Din nou despre invazia de studii (proaste) covid-19 care chiar devine o problema si o piedica in a stabili tratamente care chiar functioneaza. E o cacofonie fara precedent in istoria stiintei.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/cro/bmj-n ... tic-trials

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby dustweaver » Sun May 17, 2020 12:50 pm

Toti desteptii sa faca studii.
(Disclaimer: ma enerveaza foarte tare ageamiii cu pretentii si tocmai am dat o tura pe LinkedIn, cateodata uit ca acolo e locul unde toata lumea sparge muntii.)

Optimismul lui "once-in-a-lifetime pandemic" mi s-a parut reconfortant. Da, in felul in care e o premiera.
Pe-aici umbla şi el şi se-ntorcea mereu
contimporan cu fluturii, cu Dumnezeu.

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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Sun May 17, 2020 1:14 pm

Ptr o pauza publicitara intri pe LinkedIn.

Eu urmăresc.
1 chestie interesanta pe zi se găsește.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Sun May 17, 2020 1:32 pm

Nici stiinta nu mai e ce-a fost.

98001726_2694106074167448_7036871149296287744_o.jpg


Chiar, ati vazut ca s-a bagat The Lancet in politica? :)

“The Trump administration’s further erosion of the CDC will harm global cooperation in science and public health, as it is trying to do by defunding WHO,” The Lancet wrote.

“A strong CDC is needed to respond to public health threats, both domestic and international, and to help prevent the next inevitable pandemic. Americans must put a president in the White House come January, 2021, who will understand that public health should not be guided by partisan politics.”

Desi sunt de acord cu afirmatia in sine, e oarecum ironica ultima fraza, venind din partea unei reviste de stiinta care publica un editorial politic.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Sun May 17, 2020 2:10 pm

Eu sunt printre cei care cred ca comunitatea stiintifica ar trebui sa lupte impotriva dezinformarii in mod activ si sa call out personajele care propaga neadevaruri stiintifice.
Dar sa emiti opinii evident partizane referitoare la administratie (i-au criticat pe conservatori de la Reagan, Bush pana la Trump) si sa spui oamenilor cu subiect si predicat cu cine sa voteze e... oau.

Impartialitatea stiintifica nu e un moft etic, repectarea ei are consecinte pragmatice. Cum altfel sa ceri populatiei sa aiba incredere in sursele stiintifice?

Pragmatic vorbind, cu ce ajuta de fapt editorialul din The Lancet?

Sa convinga in plus oamenii care deja erau convinsi ca Trump a fost un dezastru si oricum nu (mai) intentioneaza sa voteze cu el?

Ca pentru ceilalti, fie ca sunt sustinatori de-ai lui Trump, fie ca sunt inca nehotarati, editorialul se potriveste perfect cu naratiunea ca aceasta criza e manipulata politic si ca sfaturile stiintifice ce vin din sursele mainstream nu sunt impartiale, deci nici demne de incredere. :(
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Mihai_P » Mon May 18, 2020 7:38 pm

Studiu asupra influentei famotidinei in spital: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20086694v1

Riscul de agravare cu intubare sau moarte de 2 ori mai mic. Nu e clar ce influenta ar avea daca e administrata inainte de spitalizare.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Mon May 18, 2020 7:42 pm

Retrospective study, articol fara peer review.
Rothschild did it:
http://epochtimes-romania.com/news/prot ... e---301221

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Mon May 18, 2020 7:46 pm

MumaPadurii wrote:Eu sunt printre cei care cred ca comunitatea stiintifica ar trebui sa lupte impotriva dezinformarii in mod activ si sa call out personajele care propaga neadevaruri stiintifice.
Dar sa emiti opinii evident partizane referitoare la administratie (i-au criticat pe conservatori de la Reagan, Bush pana la Trump) si sa spui oamenilor cu subiect si predicat cu cine sa voteze e... oau.

Impartialitatea stiintifica nu e un moft etic, repectarea ei are consecinte pragmatice. Cum altfel sa ceri populatiei sa aiba incredere in sursele stiintifice?

Pragmatic vorbind, cu ce ajuta de fapt editorialul din The Lancet?

Sa convinga in plus oamenii care deja erau convinsi ca Trump a fost un dezastru si oricum nu (mai) intentioneaza sa voteze cu el?

Ca pentru ceilalti, fie ca sunt sustinatori de-ai lui Trump, fie ca sunt inca nehotarati, editorialul se potriveste perfect cu naratiunea ca aceasta criza e manipulata politic si ca sfaturile stiintifice ce vin din sursele mainstream nu sunt impartiale, deci nici demne de incredere. :(

Dar ce, nu mai exista libertate de exprimare? Numai antivaccinistii si Trump sa beneficieze de dreptul de a spune prostii?

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Mon May 18, 2020 8:22 pm

Melania wrote:Retrospective study, articol fara peer review.
Rothschild did it:
http://epochtimes-romania.com/news/prot ... e---301221


Se rezolva cu un consult de specialitate.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Mon May 18, 2020 9:13 pm

Melania wrote:Dar ce, nu mai exista libertate de exprimare? Numai antivaccinistii si Trump sa beneficieze de dreptul de a spune prostii?

Pai ce legatura are cu libertatea de exprimare? Am zis eu ca n-au dreptul sa publice ce vor?
Libertate de exprimare nu inseamna ca nu pot fi criticati.

Am vorbit cu cineva care spunea ca e ok pentru ca articolul a fost publicat la sectiunea editoriale din The Lancet, nu la sectiunea de articole stiintifice.

Mie tot nu mi se pare ok, nu cred ca omul de rand care citeste in Bloomberg ca redactia The Lancet critica masurile conservatorilor si indeamna lumea sa voteze anti-trump, sta sa faca diferenta ca textul a aparut la sectiunea articole de opinie sau articole stiintifice.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Mon May 18, 2020 11:42 pm

Pai asta zic si eu, e o opinie.
Inca nu am citit despre asta dar nu pricep care e riscul aparitiei unui virus recombinat. De ex stim ca sars2 infecteaza pisicile si ca pisicile au si ele coronavirusurile lor. Ma gandesc ca riscul aparitiei unui virus recombinant cu un coronavirus de la pisici sau alte animale exista, nu?
Recombinarea nu o chestie nemaiauzita:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4152292/
Sper ca nu va veni apocalipsa pisicilor.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby pc7 » Tue May 19, 2020 12:48 am

Trump ia hydroxychloroquine

"I'm taking it for about a week and a half now and I'm still here, I'm still here," Trump told reporters on Monday."

E inca aici, e inca aici, at lest he s funny
"mania grandorii daca n-o ai, la medicina ce cauta n-ai " vlad s.
"latra-ti dusmanii, ca se zapacesc la cap" muma p

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Tue May 19, 2020 6:45 pm

Deci il inteleg pe Sebastian Lazaroiu care se intreaba cum a fost posibil ca Franta sa abia cazuri de Covid (ma rog, imagini sugestive de...) din 15 Noiembrie?
Adica doctorii aia de au vazut ditamai pneumoniile nu s-au intrebat care e cauza? Sau erau varstici morti de batranete?

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Mihai_P » Tue May 19, 2020 9:59 pm

Probleme cu studiile care aratau risc redus la fumatori:

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -to-public
https://exposetobacco.org/news/flawed-c ... U4AQ#_ftn1

Un efect din asta cu reducere a riscului de 4-6 ori ar trebui investigat in amanunt. Nu poate fi lasat sa treaca asa. Sau exista, sau ceva e... peshcos.

E ca si cum ai spune ca cutremurele fac podurile de 5 ori mai rezistente. Sau e foarte bine, sau foarte nasol.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby M_Dan » Wed May 20, 2020 10:08 am

Tot in noiembrie 2019 a aparut si la noi covideala. Nevasta-mea o cunoaste pe o tipa din Brasov care s-a imbolnavit atunci. De la ea s-au imbolnavit cele doua fetite, de gimnaziu (clasa a 5-a si a 6-a), in decembrie, si de la ele a luat boala nevasta-mea (facea cu ele temele la matematica). In perioada respectiva au fost bolnavi multi copii de gimnaziu, cu stat acasa o saptamana.

Concluzia ar fi ca pandemia nu a pornit din China, deoarece covideala a fost in multe tari simultan. Este posibil ca virusul sa fi fost imprastiat din avioane (drone), prin aerosoli. Motivul ar fi ruperea (pretrext) logodnei dintre SUA si China.
China a devenit prea puternica (economic si in viitor si militar) si necontrolabila, ii supara rau pe americani.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby pc7 » Wed May 20, 2020 10:16 am

Sper ca i ai facut anticorpii lui sotie, nu ne minti pe aici de plictiseala
"mania grandorii daca n-o ai, la medicina ce cauta n-ai " vlad s.
"latra-ti dusmanii, ca se zapacesc la cap" muma p

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby andy gavrilescu » Wed May 20, 2020 10:50 am

I-a facut pe dracu, nici macar sex, altfel lua si el covideala.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Wed May 20, 2020 10:58 am

Adevărul e ca la vârsta lor nu te joci cu riscul de bronhoaspiratie.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Wed May 20, 2020 12:40 pm

Revenind la covid, sunt din ce in ce mai sceptica cu privire la posibilitatea de a avea un vaccin bun in timp util.
Un studiu despre un vaccin aprobat pt dengue a aratat ca acesta protejeaza oarecum si scade riscul de spitalizare cu 70% dar exista cazuri de antibody dependent enhancement in cei care au fost vaccinati si care trebuie spitalizati pana la urma. Nu toti cei care au anticorpi sunt protejati.
Problema e ca ADE nu apare in cazul asta decat dupa doi ani de la vaccinare, in studiile clinice nu au vazut prea bine banuiesc. Abia cand au inceput vaccinarile si si-au dat seama ca e o problema au intrerupt programul de vaccinare. 850000 de copii au fost vaccinati in Filipino pt dengue si toata tarasenia a fost un fiasco jenant pt Sanofi si unii filipinezi cred acum ca vaccinul produce dengue. :/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... -16972.pdf
Sperantele sunt f mari pt vaccinul covid dar cum ziceam producerea unui vaccin safe si eficace e undeva intre artizanat si loterie.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby M_Dan » Wed May 20, 2020 1:07 pm

Am discutat cu multe persoane despre posibilitatea de a fi trecut prin covidoza in perioada decembrie 2019 - februarie 2020 si au confirmat ca au avut "o gripa mai rea".
Nevasta-mea era sa o mierleasca (o apucase rau - febra, probleme respiratorii). Am crezut ca are ornitoza de la porumbei si i-am dat doxiciclina, care si-a facut efectul dupa trei zile de tratament, dar a luat timp de o luna, ca pentru ornitoza. Cand am auzit-o ca si copiii cu care lucra la mate au cam aceleasi simptome, m-am gandit ca poate au luat si ei ornitoza, desi nu se transmite de la om la om decat extrem de rar.
Eu am trecut prin covidoza mai tarziu, cu simptome mai usoare dar de lunga durata. Abia de curand mi-a revenit mirosul (in primul rand duhoarea proprie). Nu mai foloseam deodorant dupa ce ma spalam, aveam impresia ca nu este necesar.
Tusim si acum si am inceput sa luam medicamente expectorante pentru tuse productiva. Eu am stranutat de zeci de ori pe zi pana saptamana trecuta.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby andy gavrilescu » Wed May 20, 2020 1:36 pm

ai stranutat ca e sezonul alergiilor.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Wed May 20, 2020 1:49 pm

M Dan wrote:Nu mai foloseam deodorant dupa ce ma spalam, aveam impresia ca nu este necesar.

De ce, ti-a afectat si neuronii din scoarta cerebrala, nu doar cei olfactivi?

Macar e bine ca n-ai orbit, altfel ieseai si gol pe strada, nu doar nespalat.
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby alimori » Wed May 20, 2020 1:58 pm

Melania wrote:Revenind la covid, sunt din ce in ce mai sceptica cu privire la posibilitatea de a avea un vaccin bun in timp util.
............
Sperantele sunt f mari pt vaccinul covid dar cum ziceam producerea unui vaccin safe si eficace e undeva intre artizanat si loterie.


Ce inseamna "in timp util"?
Loterie cand n-ai cumparat actiuni unde trebuie.
Orice vaccin poate fi incadrat intre artizanat si loterie.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 1:10 am

In timp util as zice 1 an jumate, dupa aia incepe probabil sa nu mai conteze pt ca dezastrul oricum se va fi facut in mare parte. Un an jumate e un timp foarte mic, practic imposibil. Vaccinul flu pandemic a fost produs f repede pt ca exista toata infrastructura si studiile de adjuvant is, formulare etc si au trebuit doar sa schimbe antigenul, la fel ca la gripa sezoniera sa arate ca e imunogen si ca anticorpii sunt neutralizanti (in vitro) si in general safe (mai apoi s-a dovedit ca nu era chiar atat de safe dar nah, graba si cererea mare). Deci asta e un caz particular.
Numai reviewul dupa ce toate datele de phase 3 au fost analizate dureaza 3-6 luni in europa in procedura standard. Si acum abia suntem in phase I...
Un vaccin se dezvolta in vreo 10 ani de la momentul in care e administrat la om in phase I pana apare pe piata. Cam 95% dintre cele care intra in teste pe oameni nu ajung sa fie administrate niciodata in afara unui studiu clinic (nu intra pe piata).
Am gasit aici un link interesant:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 1:27 am

Cu ce strategie vine europa:
https://m.hotnews.ro/stire/24008395
Pe bune, au cheltuit o gramada de bani sa vina cu planul asta idiot? E cea mai imbecila propunere pe care am auzit-o in legatura cu covid, chiar mai imbecila decat injectia cu dezinfectant.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby M_Dan » Thu May 21, 2020 10:21 am

Aveti limbaj medico-golanesc, dar sunteti nuli la tot ce tine de medicina. Subdoctori (echivalenti cu subinginerii).

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 12:22 pm

Complicat...zice-se ca virusul care circula prin europa si us are o mutatie in spike in epitopul care e selectat pt vaccinuri. Unele vaccinuri in dezvoltare folosesc secventa originala din wuhan care pare ca nu e majoritara in UE si us deci ar putea fi degeaba.
In plus, virusul pare nu numai ca aduna mutatii ceea ce e normal dar exista date care arata ca SARS-2 are secvente din recombinari recente, si deci se mai poate recombina cu ce virusi mai gaseste in celula, probabil cu alte corona umane sau cu variante de SARS-cov-2 care au mutatii mai avantajoase eg rezistenta la antivirale, afinitate pt receptor, etc.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby pc7 » Thu May 21, 2020 12:51 pm

Great Mela, love good news
"mania grandorii daca n-o ai, la medicina ce cauta n-ai " vlad s.
"latra-ti dusmanii, ca se zapacesc la cap" muma p

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 1:00 pm

Nu sunt f bune, dar macar acum stim cu ce avem de-a face.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 1:57 pm

Vesti bune deci :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 3:14 pm

Are logica

0.png


We are gradually learning more about this new virus. However when everything started, we received several "dogmas" from authorities and scientists. One of them was that we will achieve herd immunity when SARS COV-2 infects 70% of the population. The human mind, said John Maynard Keynes, is like the egg and the sperm: "once a sperm enters the egg it is impossible for another sperm to enter", so are the ideas; once an idea enters in our mind it´s very difficult to removed it and accept a new one. Although there are times when due to the overwhelming evidence against the original theory, we end up leaving the old ideas and accepting the new ones, which Thomas Kuhn called a paradigm shift. For this physicist, the acquisition of new knowledge is not continuous, but happens intermittently; most of the advances in a subject are generated around an initial theory without contributing anything "really new". When a large amount of arguments against classical knowledge accumulate, the old theory is abandoned in favor of the new one (e.g. from Newton's mechanics to Einstein's theory of relativity).

In the case of SARS-Cov-2 any argument that we listen today is based on two assumptions:

1.- The epidemic will behave like the 1918 Flu and the “Outbreak in October” will be even more virulent.

2.- When the vaccine arrives, or when we reach the herd immunity (70% population infected) we will overcome the situation.

The first point I have already discussed it in previous articles: The comparison of the coronavirus with the H1N1 flu pandemic is equivalent to comparing a Ferrari and a Fiat 600 (2 cars, but very different). Moreover, we don´t know yet if human being is a reservoir of the virus, which would keep the virus from disappearing.

But today I would like to talk about the second point: herd immunity. It´s a very relevant concept because when we reach it, it will allow us to return to normal life. Two articles have been published on this subject that shed some light, and give us an idea of what may happen in the future (Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold(1); The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level(2))

Before I start explaining them, I would like to clarify 2 terms:

R0: It's the basic reproduction number of the virus: how many people are infected from one person (virus carrier) in a specific period. Scientists say it´s between 2.2 and 3.5 (A virus carrier could infect 2 to 3 of their contacts).

This concept is very important to calculated herd immunity (hC = 1 - 1/R0) The higher the rate of reproduction the higher the percentage of the infected population is needed to reach herd immunity.

But how does herd immunity work? Why 70%? Herd immunity is a concept developed from vaccination, if you get about 70% of the population vaccinated, even though the rest are not vaccinated they will be protected anyway because the virus does not find people to infect and replicate itself. The classical herd immunity level hC is defined as hC = 1 − 1/R0, where R0 is the basic reproduction number defined as the average number of new infections caused by a typical infected individual during the early stage of an outbreak. This definition originates from vaccination considerations: if a fraction v is vaccinated (with a vaccine giving 100% immunity) and vaccinees are selected uniformly in the community, then the new reproduction number is Rv = (1 − v)R0. From this it is clear that the critical vaccination coverage vc = 1 − 1/R0; if at least this fraction is vaccinated, the community has reached herd immunity, as Rv ≤ 1, and no outbreak can take place(2)”

The 70% estimate is based on a homogeneous population. Perhaps you know an example of a family member or a friend who, despite living with an infected patient, has tested negative for COVID19 antibodies. We need to explain an important concept to understand this situation: susceptibility. To be able to get infected we need to be exposed to a high viral load, if we are in contact with many people with a high viral load (e.g. healthcare professional) we will be more susceptible than if we live in isolation in a rural area and have sporadic contact with a COVID 19 patient. Therefore, the concept of susceptibility depends on the area where you live, the population density, whether you use public transport or not; in short, how exposed you are to other potentially infected people.

New studies on herd immunity tell us that it could be reached with about 20% of population infected (the most optimistic projections) or 43% (the most conservative ones). They consider that populations are not homogeneous, but very heterogeneous (number of contacts, urban vs. rural...)

Figure: Minimum herd immunity level required (%hD=heterogeneous group and %hC=classical homogeneous group) for different R0 = 2.0, 2.5 and 3.02

Secondly, we have the concept of vulnerability. It's the likelihood of having a serious illness that can be life-threatening. As we have already seen, elderly people, hypertension, diabetes, obesity... are risk factors that can contribute to a serious and sometimes fatal disease

Measures to reduce social contact such as confinement, sanitary masks, avoidance of large community events etc. are intended to reduce the susceptibility of infection by COVID19, while the vaccine or treatments are intended to protect the vulnerable. Maintaining very restrictive measures does not directly reduce deaths as we are attacking susceptibility and not directly vulnerability. In order to protect the vulnerable people, we need treatments or vaccines.

If we review the two studies that tell us that the level of herd immunity is (in a heterogeneous population) between 20% and 40%, we could relax the confinement measures even more and much faster. In fact, these mathematical models tell us that maintaining measures that are too restrictive for too long, can favor a second outbreak because there is a certain population that due to its characteristics (urban, public transport user, high social interaction...) will be infected in any case (purple line in the graph below). Don't get me wrong, social distancing measures are necessary and have helped us a lot. They are necessary to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system (leaving space to treat vulnerable population) but at some point, they are no longer effective.

Figure: Diagram of the total fraction infected over time according to age and community activity with R0 = 2.5. Four different levels of prevention. Blue, red, yellow and purple curves correspond to no measures, light, moderate and restrictive preventive measures respectively(2)

If you are still reluctant to these arguments, there is an unintended experiment: Diamond Princess cruise. As you may know, the cruise ship was quarantined with 3,700 passengers at the coast of Japan. The virus vanished with 17% of the cruise ship population infected, i.e. herd immunity was achieved with 17%. From that number we can infer that the viral load became so low (due to social distancing measures and the sick people got recovered) that the susceptibility to COVID 19 of the non-infected passengers decreased, and no further infections occurred.

We talked about the theoretical R0 that is between 2 and 3, but in real life is close to 0, Most people do not transmit. That´s why we need to consider not only R0 but also k (dispersion factor) The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people (disease clusters). The k value for the 1918 pandemic Flu was close to 1 (no disease clusters), 2002 SARS had a k of 0.16 and 2014 MERS had a 0.25 k factor. What about SARS Cov-2? Guess what… it´s far from 1918 pandemic k factor and close to SARS and MERS k value = 0.1 k factor of COVID19 (Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China) “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread” said one of the authors.

That´s why some very early cases (they found cases in Italy and France in December) failed to ignite the outbreak. Therefore, by identifying disease clusters (as South Korea did) we can control the pandemic without damaging the economy by taking drastic (and unnecessary) measures as total confinement.

In summary, the question of protecting economy or health is a false dilemma. You can protect both at the same time, it does not make any sense to prolong unnecessary measures that could even be devastating by causing a hypothetical (and unlikely) 2nd outbreak. “Countries where suppression of the initial outbreak was more successful, such as Austria, have acquired less immunity and therefore the potential for future transmission in the respective populations remains naturally larger. However, also in these situations, expectations for the potential of subsequent waves is much reduced by variation in susceptibility to infection(1).”

Groucho Marx used to say: “Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others” It's not a question of changing our principles but it seems that herd immunity is not a magic or an unchangeable number. I can imagine that after reading this article your first reaction won´t be positive. However, you can start your own survey: ask friends and family, who has COVID19 antibodies and who doesn’t, and you will see that the virus is not as we thought and maybe that leaves space for new ideas...
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jolly joker
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 4:21 pm

Exista totuși o greșeală. Colapsul sistemului înseamnă pierderi colaterale.

Asa e când vrei sa te remarci. Dar, fiind spaniol, îl înțeleg pe autor. Poate fi negare. Adică, statul lor nu-i atât de negru. Decidentii economici au un cuvânt greu, indiferent de specialiștii lor.

Se putea opri la ipoteza (logica) ca imunitatea de grup tre sa ia în considerare zona și ca trebuie făcută o ponderare în funcție de probabilitatea ptr fiecare zona.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 5:00 pm

De acord ca second/third confinement nu prea are sens si ar trebui ca populatia vulnerabila sa fie protejata. E adevarat ca herd immunity se foloseste cand vorbim de vaccinuri, si modelele matematice trebuie sa ia in considerare si alti factori pt a determina here immunity threshold. Habar n-am cum se face chestia asta si cum poti masura heterogenitatea.
Sunt niste fakenews in textul de mai sus. In primul rand virusul nu a ‘vanished’ de pe diamond princess cand infectia a ajuns la 17% (by the way e 19%) ci daca tin eu bine minte oamenii au fost evacuati pana la urma. R0 pe nava a fost de 14.
Si apoi cei care erau pozitivi din cate stiu eu erau evacuati de pe nava. Si mai mult, fiecare pasager a fost inchis in cabina. Deci despre ce herd immunity e vorba pe diamond princess?
La fel, in stockholm nu e herd immunity cum nici in spania nu e herd immunity din simplul motiv ca in stockholm sunt in vigoare masuri de distantare sociala, de izolare a pop vulnerabile, etc etc. Plus ca au un dezastru in caminele de batrani.
Masurile de lockdown nu au putut fi luate in suedia din simplul motiv ca nu le permitea constitutia. Autoritatile suedeze au spus de zeci de ori ca nu urmaresc herd immunity.
Totusi, suedia s-a scos destul de bine pt ca au fost disciplinati si pentru ca au si alta cultura, nu stau bot in bot generatii in aceeasi casa. E imposibila metoda suedeza in italia de ex.
Eu cred ca lockdownul a salvat vieti in franta italia spania iar metoda suedeza daca era implementata acolo ar fi dus la un dezastru si mai mare.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 5:07 pm

Melania wrote:De acord ca second/third confinement nu prea are sens si ar trebui ca populatia vulnerabila sa fie protejata. E adevarat ca herd immunity se foloseste cand vorbim de vaccinuri, si modelele matematice trebuie sa ia in considerare si alti factori pt a determina here immunity threshold. Habar n-am cum se face chestia asta si cum poti masura heterogenitatea.
Sunt niste fakenews in textul de mai sus. In primul rand virusul nu a ‘vanished’ de pe diamond princess cand infectia a ajuns la 17% (by the way e 19%) ci daca tin eu bine minte oamenii au fost evacuati pana la urma. R0 pe nava a fost de 14.
Si apoi cei care erau pozitivi din cate stiu eu erau evacuati de pe nava. Si mai mult, fiecare pasager a fost inchis in cabina. Deci despre ce herd immunity e vorba pe diamond princess?
La fel, in stockholm nu e herd immunity cum nici in spania nu e herd immunity din simplul motiv ca in stockholm sunt in vigoare masuri de distantare sociala, de izolare a pop vulnerabile, etc etc. Plus ca au un dezastru in caminele de batrani.
Masurile de lockdown nu au putut fi luate in suedia din simplul motiv ca nu le permitea constitutia. Autoritatile suedeze au spus de zeci de ori ca nu urmaresc herd immunity.
Totusi, suedia s-a scos destul de bine pt ca au fost disciplinati si pentru ca au si alta cultura, nu stau bot in bot generatii in aceeasi casa. E imposibila metoda suedeza in italia de ex.
Eu cred ca lockdownul a salvat vieti in franta italia spania iar metoda suedeza daca era implementata acolo ar fi dus la un dezastru si mai mare.


Lucreaza ca market access autorul spaniol, deci poate face greseli neintentionate (mi se par neglijabile).
Nu cred ca e fake news, adica nu in sensul de manipulare (luand in considerare si ce am scris mai sus, legat de pierderile colaterale).
Titlul e The False Dilemma: WHY YOU DON´T HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN SAVING LIVES OR SAVING THE ECONOMY. WHY SAVING THE ECONOMY NOW, CAN SAVE LIVES LATER?
E doua oara cand vad la un spaniol pe linkedin ca numarul de decese este acelasi in final.

Probabiltatea de infectare e mai mica in zonele cu densitate mai mica. Acolo efectul imunitatii de grup se obtine mai usor. Iar cei care au tendinta de a contamina si de a fi contaminati mai usor sunt primii, ramanand cei care nu ies din curte.
Last edited by jolly joker on Thu May 21, 2020 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 5:16 pm

Pai si eu am spus prin martie ca in final numarul de decese va fi acelasil, cu conditia ca in ambele strategii sistemele de sanatate sa nu fie saturate. Probabilitatea de saturare e mai mare daca masurile sunt mai laxe sau daca sistemul e mai putin pregatit.
Intrebarea lui e misleading, in caz de saturare multe vieti nu pot fi salvate.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 5:48 pm

Sunt biasati spaniolii. Forteaza chestia cu numarul de decese cu restrictii = numarul de decese fara restrictii.

Important e ca nivelul imunitatii de grup, care va reduce si marusile de restrictie, ar trebui calculat ponderat si nu raportat la intreaga populatie. Ptr Bucuresti va fi poate nevoie de 70% dar ptr o localitatea mai aeristita 40% ar putea fi echivalent si sufient ptr masuri laxe.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby jolly joker » Thu May 21, 2020 6:24 pm

Melania wrote:Pai si eu am spus prin martie ca in final numarul de decese va fi acelasil, cu conditia ca in ambele strategii sistemele de sanatate sa nu fie saturate. Probabilitatea de saturare e mai mare daca masurile sunt mai laxe sau daca sistemul e mai putin pregatit.
Intrebarea lui e misleading, in caz de saturare multe vieti nu pot fi salvate.


Încă nu se cunoaște cati sunt salvați de tratament+ventilație vs indivizi identici. Nu am inclus și salvații. Doar Trump știe :lol: :peace:

Probabil ca e mai ușor sa compari mortalitatile ptr alte patologii cu cele așteptate acolo unde a fost saturat sistemul și sa vezi colateralii.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Melania » Thu May 21, 2020 6:40 pm

jolly joker wrote:Sunt biasati spaniolii. Forteaza chestia cu numarul de decese cu restrictii = numarul de decese fara restrictii.

Important e ca nivelul imunitatii de grup, care va reduce si marusile de restrictie, ar trebui calculat ponderat si nu raportat la intreaga populatie. Ptr Bucuresti va fi poate nevoie de 70% dar ptr o localitatea mai aeristita 40% ar putea fi echivalent si sufient ptr masuri laxe.

De acord. Probabil variabilele priving heterogenitatea se pot afla din datele de telefonie mobila. Nu e sufficient sa iei localitatile separat ci sa vezi su cum se misca oamenii intre localitati si un localitate. Datele de telefonie mobila se folosesc in belgia dar de maniera reactiva (sa vada daca oamenii respecta masurile) si nu proactiva (sa instituie masuri mai inteligente pe baza datelor de dinainte de pandemie de ex).

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby MumaPadurii » Thu May 21, 2020 8:47 pm

M-am uitat pana la jumatate, apoi n-am mai rezistat, mi-au venit niste porniri criminale fata de femeia aia care facea scandal.
Am intalnit specimene de-astea in mai multe tari si limbi, dar asa cum cum graiul tarii mama e cel mai dulce, la fel de bine poate fi si cel mai enervant.

Muma the Puma


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